Before suggesting ideas that I believe can change things, I'll post some things I think won't change much in the long term. I pointed out what appears the dominant strategy for North Korean decision-makers Stabiility: to maintain its geographical dominance Loyalty: to maintain its support from its citizens All other decisions are subordinate to this strategy or irrelevant. I expect the North Korean government will resist any action that threatens those two principles. And I expect only actions that affect those points will make much difference (though many small actions in other areas may collectively make a big difference). I…

To understand how leaders in North Korea decide how to implement the strategy I've described in the past few posts, you have to look at the situation from their perspective. When a business decides its strategy, it formally deliberates and decides it. For the management team to mess up on implementing it may result in the company losing money, market share, and so on. Messing up badly can result in being fired and possibly losing their jobs and even personal savings. But you don't risk bodily harm or risk your life. When an authoritarian ruler messes up strategy, they risk…

I'm using the lens of business strategy to understand the North Korean government's strategy. That lens applies, partly because of the similarities between business and political competition, but mostly because North Korea's situation is so simple. The three main relevant factors in competitive strategy are Keeping out competition -- to have a sustainable competitive advantage -- dominates strategy. Dominating geographically is often an effective strategy for a sustainable competitive advantage. Customer captivity is another effective strategy for a sustainable competitive advantage. What is a sustainable competitive advantage? This value investing site put it succinctly for businesses A sustainable competitive advantage…

First a few caveats before I paint the broad strokes for the perspectives and motivations for the major players as they relate to North Korean strategy. I haven't studied international and public affairs. I believe, nonetheless, that the broad strokes below describe the important aspects of the strategic situation. Perhaps I'm speaking out of ignorance, but I believe history backs me up: how else can you explain a regime maintaining power with no resources defying major global powers to build nuclear weapons, counterfeit the dominant powers' currency, deal arms and drugs, and oversee the preventable deaths of ten percent of…

The playing field for North Korean strategy, which reduces the number of relevant players, simplifies North Korea's strategic situation more than almost anything else. Few other nations see such a combination of global importance and simplicity. The map below, from Wikipedia, shows nearly everything you need to know about the playing field. North Korea shares borders with three countries: China, South Korea, and Russia. Farther to the east lies Japan. No other countries are close. For a few reasons, mainly that North Korea developed nuclear weapons and its involvement in the Korean War, the United States is involved. Within North…

If you want to plan something non-trivial, you need a strategy. If you don't know what strategy is, you can't make a good strategy. I've read one book that covers strategy better than any other -- Competition Demystified: a radically simplified approach to business strategy, by Bruce Greenwald and Judd Kahn (I haven't read On War yet but I have read Porter). While it focuses on business as opposed to political or military strategy the principles are similar. Competition Demystified's first chapter defines strategy, describes its importance, outlines its main principles, and begins the process of creating a strategy. On…

"What can I do?" This question drives interest in North Korea perhaps more than any other after asking what it's like. Even people who know little about the rest of the world sense something about North Korea they'd like to help with. Nobody sees what they can do. The next few posts will cover what you can do. I believe you need to understand North Korea's situation from a strategic level both globally and regionally to see what you can and can't do and what may or may not work. I also believe you can learn the relevant overall situation…